Premier Is Big Winner in Turkish Elections

Supporters of the ruling Justice and Development Party wave Turkish and party flags as they wait for the arrival of Prime Minister Erdogan at party headquarters in Ankara on Sunday. Reuters

ISTANBUL—Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan appeared to have scored a decisive victory Sunday in local elections cast as a referendum on his rule, raising the odds he will run for president this summer, even as fraud allegations underscored the country's deepening polarization.

Exit polls showed Mr. Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, winning a comfortable majority of votes nationally, but the margin of victory and his party's control of major cities was unclear early Monday. Two polls showed the party registering 46% of the vote with 80% of the ballots counted, with the main opposition Republican People's Party, or CHP, securing 28%.

In Turkey's largest city, Istanbul, and the capital, Ankara—the most closely watched and influential constituencies—both the government and the opposition claimed victory and accused each another of fraud. The AKP appeared to have held Istanbul but the final results in Ankara were still unclear at midnight.

Normally, local elections in Turkey are minor affairs that garner little international attention. But the stakes in Sunday's voting have soared in recent weeks amid mounting allegations of financial and political impropriety against the premier and his allies.

Mr. Erdogan has denied the allegations and has sought to quash the sprawling graft probe by overhauling the judiciary, purging thousands of police officials he deems nettlesome and blocking social-networking websites Twitter and YouTube, where most of the alleged leaks first appeared.

Flanked by several close allies who were ensnared in the corruption scandal including his son Bilal and three ministers forced to resign, Mr. Erdogan told thousands of supporters gathered in Ankara that his victory had dealt his political enemies an "Ottoman slap."

"Those who attacked Turkey are disappointed today.…We have the democracy the West is longing for," the premier said.

Video Dispatches

Reporters from The Wall Street Journal's Istanbul bureau are following Turkey's local elections on the ground, filing video reports from polling stations. Read More.

In comments widely interpreted as signaling a postelection crackdown against his enemies, the premier warned the movement of U.S.-based Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen, a former ally turned political rival. The premier blames Mr. Gulen's followers in the police and the judiciary for orchestrating a bogus graft probe to topple him, and leaking scenarios of a potential military action inside Syria to damage his government before the elections.

"Tomorrow there may be those who have to flee. But we will go into their caves. They will pay the price," Mr. Erdogan said.

A Turkish woman casts her vote at a polling station in Istanbul on Sunday. European Pressphoto Agency

Although the final breakdown of Sunday's vote wasn't clear, analysts said Mr. Erdogan appeared to have won a clear victory that could have broad implications for Turkey's turbulent politics. Mr. Erdogan is likely to interpret the result as a popular seal of approval for his recent policies, which his opponents decry as authoritarian, analysts said. The tally could also encourage the premier to run to become Turkey's first directly elected president this summer, a move that could allow him to govern for another decade.

"What we're seeing is that AKP got at the higher end of the expected band of support. It seems these past few weeks with all the political tension have not greatly undermined their support. This will give hope for Erdogan supporters that he will become a candidate for the presidential elections," said Sinan Ulgen, chairman of the Center for the Study of Economics and Foreign Policy, an Istanbul-based think tank.

Mr. Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP—which swept to power in 2002 on a platform of eradicating the graft in public office and has won three successive national elections—had targeted equaling its 2009 municipal tally of 39%. Financial markets that had been roiled by corruption allegations since December steadied last week in anticipation of AKP winning more decisively.

Despite Mr. Erdogan's claims of a decisive victory, few expected the poll to mark the end of political instability.

As Turks voted Sunday, Turkey's increasingly polarized politics also played out across Istanbul's neighborhoods, with residents citing widely varying expectations from the polls.

"I'm on AK Party's side, I have a lot of love for Recep Tayyip Erdogan: he's our spiritual father. The allegations against him are complete lies," said Dilan Kizmaz, a 22-year-old in the conservative district of Fatih, voting for the second time in her life.

Supporters of Turkey's main opposition Republican People's Party wave Turkish and party flags during an election rally in Istanbul on Saturday. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Across the Golden Horn, In the opposition district of Besiktas, voters warned that escalating social tensions recalled a Turkey of the 1970s, where the country was roiled by street violence that precipitated a military coup.

"There is a lot of tension. It's like the old times. Everyone just shouts their own truth, and so does the government," said Saniye, a 78-year-old grandmother who asked that her last name not be used because of the tense political atmosphere.

With the mood polarized, some voters on Sunday said they feared the re-emergence of nationwide street protests, which flared again in March, claiming the lives of a policeman in the eastern city of Tunceli and a 22-year-old man in Istanbul.

Detractors of Mr. Erdogan went to the polls with high hopes of dealing a significant political blow to Turkey's hitherto unrivaled leader. Fueling their optimism was the antigovernment movement crystallizing since June protests and the sprawling corruption scandal that is shaking the government's top echelons.

Yet Sunday's result appeared to mark the latest in a long line of defeats for the prime minister's secular and liberal opponents, who viewed the municipal poll as a possible stepping stone to challenge Mr. Erdogan nationally.

"If there is no change, Erdogan's stance will continue to get harsher, justified by a win at the ballot box I find that unacceptable," said Oya Belirgen, a 32-year-old unemployed export specialist who voted for the opposition in Istanbul's Beyoglu district.

Write to Joe Parkinson at joe.parkinson@wsj.com and Emre Peker at emre.peker@wsj.com